Silent Celiac – The Early Warning Signs of Celiac Disease

Early Warning Signs of Celiac Disease Before the Diagnosis

Most people think celiac disease is obvious – constant diarrhea, dramatic weight loss, and severe stomach pain. But in the real world, early warning signs of celiac disease often shows up in young adults as “nothing dramatic”… until years later when the damage is done. That diagnostic delay matters, because untreated celiac can lead to nutrient deficiencies, bone loss, infertility, neurological issues, and an increased risk of early death.

A newly published large-scale study asked a simple, important question:

Are there subtle lab or clinical clues that appear years before someone is officially diagnosed with celiac disease?

Turns out—yes. And many of them are hiding in plain sight on routine lab work.

What the researchers did (in plain English)

The investigators used a large healthcare database (Clalit Health Services) and looked at over 430,000 adults ages 18–40. They identified early warning signs of people who eventually developed celiac disease based on both:

• a celiac diagnosis code, and
• positive celiac blood tests (serology).

Then they tracked common labs and clinical features for up to 7 years before diagnosis to see what patterns showed up early before most doctors were even thinking “celiac.”

The Big Takeaway: Celiac Whispers Before it Screams

The most important finding is this:

Subtle changes in blood counts, liver enzymes, and body weight can show up years before a formal celiac diagnosis.

These weren’t always “abnormal” labs. Many were low-normal or high-normal values that often get shrugged off.

Let’s break down the key “quiet signals.”

1) Low-normal hemoglobin and small red blood cells: a major early clue

The strongest predictor of future celiac disease was lower hemoglobin (think: anemia risk), especially when paired with lower MCV (meaning smaller red blood cells often an iron deficiency pattern).

• In women, “relative” low hemoglobin/microcytosis was associated with over 5× higher risk of later celiac diagnosis.
• In men, it was about 2× higher risk.

Translation: If your blood count is drifting toward anemia – especially iron deficiency pattern, and nobody can explain why… celiac should be on the shortlist.

And here’s the kicker: these trends were visible years before diagnosis in the study’s lab trend graphs (hemoglobin/MCV trends).

2) Mildly elevated liver enzymes can be a celiac signal

Another strong early clue was ALT/AST (liver enzymes). Even when elevations were mild, they were associated with a significantly higher risk of later celiac diagnosis in both sexes.

• The study noted subtle “high-normal” enzyme patterns that became more apparent as diagnosis approached.

Translation: If your liver enzymes keep coming back a little high and you don’t drink heavily, don’t have hepatitis, and your doctor says “meh”… that’s not “meh.” That’s a clue.

Untreated celiac can inflame the liver in a quiet way, and many patients never realize gluten could be involved.

3) Lower BMI even in the “normal range” matters

People assume celiac means being underweight. Not always.

This study found that a lower BMI (even still “normal”) was linked with increased risk of future celiac diagnosis:

• about 2.9× higher risk in men
• about 1.9× higher risk in women

Translation: If you’re the person who “can’t keep weight on” or you’re always on the lean side plus you have low iron patterns or odd labs, you’re not crazy, your gut may not be absorbing well.

4) Repeated GI symptoms are a loud clue (even if intermittent)

You don’t need nonstop diarrhea to have celiac.

• People who had recurring GI episodes (patterned over time) had nearly 4× higher risk of future celiac diagnosis.

Translation: Chronic bloating, abdominal pain, loose stools, “IBS,” or unpredictable digestion should prompt celiac testing.

5) Genetic/chromosomal conditions carried very high risk

The highest risk in the model showed up in those with chromosomal abnormalities (the study notes these were largely conditions like Down syndrome and Turner syndrome), with about a 10× higher risk of celiac disease.

Translation: In higher-risk genetic groups, routine celiac screening isn’t optional, it’s smart preventive care.

How Early Were These “Pre-Celiac” Clues Showing Up?

This is what makes the study so valuable:  The lab “breadcrumbs” were detectable as early as 7 years before diagnosis.

And at the time of diagnosis:

• ~70% of people diagnosed with celiac had at least one of these subtle lab flags.
  Even 7 to 3 years before diagnosis.

That means many people are walking around for years with early, detectable signs while being told their labs are “fine.”

What You Should Do With This Information (Practical Steps)

If you or someone you love has any combination of the following:

• hemoglobin drifting down (especially iron-deficiency pattern / low MCV)
• persistently “slightly high” ALT or AST
• unexplained lean body weight or difficulty maintaining weight (malnutrition from malabsorption)
• recurring GI symptoms (even if labeled IBS)
• infertility concerns alongside odd labs
• or a known higher-risk genetic background

Ask your doctor about celiac screening.

Common first-line tests typically include tissue transglutaminase antibodies (tTG) and related blood markers, and ideally total IgA so IgA deficiency doesn’t create a false negative scenario (the study itself notes this as a limitation for some cases).

Important: Don’t stop eating gluten before testing, or you can make results falsely negative. Stay on gluten until testing is complete.

A Quick Word on Limitations (Because Honesty Matters)

This was a retrospective database study, meaning:

• it relied on diagnostic coding and recorded labs
• mild symptoms may not have been consistently documented

Still, the sample size was massive, and the patterns match what clinicians often see: early warnings signs of celiac disease frequently present through anemia patterns, mild liver enzyme changes, and subtle malabsorption signals long before anyone calls it “celiac.”

The Bottom Line

If your body is dropping hints – i.. low-normal iron labs, “mystery” liver enzymes, IBS symptoms that won’t resolve, and fatigue that doesn’t match your life don’t accept vague reassurance as a diagnosis.

Celiac disease doesn’t always announce itself with a megaphone. Sometimes it just leaves a paper trail in your labs.

And this study shows that trail can start up to 7 years early.  If you think gluten may be part of your problem, take the gluten quiz or consider genetic testing through Gluten Free Society to help you determine whether a gluten free diet is right for you.